Prep Draft Class Continues To Improve
After mixed early reviews, '08 high school crop grows on scouts
| By Alan Matthews |
| October 31, 2007 |
JUPITER, Fla.--At the same time ESPN, Fox, USA Today and hundreds of other media outlets across the world were interviewing the million-dollar stars of the Rockies and Red Sox following Game Three of the World Series in Denver, about a dozen scouts, a handful of college coaches and a couple of bleary-eyed agents stood quietly behind a chain-link fence in Jupiter, Fla.
It was shortly before 1 a.m., and some of them had been there since 8 a.m., and as much as they would have rather been lavishing in the limelight of Major League Baseball's Fall Classic, they were instead just hoping to find the next Mike Lowell or Jeff Francis, a player who could someday make a contribution to a future pennant contender.
The final major high school scouting event of the year doesn't come with six-man umpire crews, water fountains in the dugouts or bright, new baseballs for batting practice.
Eighty high school travel teams from the U.S., Canada, Puerto Rico and a smattering of other Latin American countries met to play 173 games in 96 hours at the spring training complex of the Cardinals and Marlins for the World Wood Bat Association fall championship. With that much talent in one place hundreds of scouts and college coaches--including 17 scouting directors--gathered to size them up.
Four months ago, shortly after 20 of the first 33 picks of the 2007 draft were popped straight out of high school, it appeared that the prep Class of '08 had far less to offer, and that college players would have to carry next year's draft class. But as the summer progressed, more talent kept popping up, and it's apparent that many of next year's top high school players are improving as their senior seasons approach.
"I thought that the guys showed pretty well," said a crosschecker with a National League club. "For the most part scouts walked away feeling that it was going to be better than we thought it was going to be in the beginning of the summer. The crop moved in the right direction as a group. Everyone left there a little more optimistic about what is available in June."
Hitting Home
Although some of the top-rated prospects in the senior class--mostly pitchers--were not in attendance, the field at this year's tournament was representative of the high school draft class.
The player many scouts focused on during the tournament was one of amateur baseball's most talked about players over the past few years, sweet-swinging South Florida first baseman Eric Hosmer.
Hosmer batted cleanup on last year's WWBA championship team, and was rated as the No. 1 underclassman at that event. As a junior this spring, however, he batted just .372 with four home runs, and when he hooked up with advisor Scott Boras, went 0-for-10 with four walks and four strikeouts with the U.S. junior team in September in Mexico and then skipped the Miami all-star game at Florida International a month later, his detractors began to accumulate.
Hosmer was again penciled into the middle of the tournament's highest-profile lineup as he joined more than a dozen other hand-picked prospects from across the country on the Braves Scout Team. He wasn't off to a stellar start, but caught fire and finished 10-for-21 with a home run and nine RBIs as the Braves won the event and Hosmer was named MVP.
"As an industry, we nitpick this or nitpick that, and sometimes we don't realize what they're going through and some of the pressure they're playing with," said a crosschecker with an American League team. "They slide in the draft, and then they go out and go on a tear in pro ball and we sit back and say, 'Damn, what happened?'
"Are there some things to be concerned about? Yes . . . But what becomes the separator is this kid has special tools. I think he's Casey Kotchman with power. I think he can be that type of defender. Can he do things few other hitters can? Sure."
The Kotchman comparison has been thrown around for years with Hosmer, and as a lefthanded hitter from Florida with an advanced approach and plus bat speed--just like Kotchman when he was drafted by the Angels in the first round in 2001--it's easy to see why.
He's got some company among the top hitters in the high school draft class, though, an including one that batted in front of him in the same lineup, California catcher Kyle Skipworth. Skipworth played with Hosmer on Team USA, against him at the Aflac All-American Classic in San Diego in August and was ranked among the top prospects at the Area Code Games in Long Beach, as well. His bat speed rivals Hosmer's, though he's more aggressive and pull-oriented at the plate. His catching experience is limited, but he has excellent flexibility, a clean arm action and his throws have plenty of carry and accuracy.
"He kind of doesn't have a clue what he's doing back there but all of those things are correctable," the AL scout said. "You could put a 70 on his arm (on the 20-80 scouting scale), his release is good enough, his hands are good enough. He's every bit as good of a package as (2007 Reds first-round catcher) Devin Mesoraco. He stays inside the ball, his hands work extremely well in his swing and he backspins the ball with ease."
If it weren't for a broken finger on his catching hand when he was hit during a swing on the tournament's third day, Skipworth might have been hoisting the MVP hardware. He spent most of the playoffs on the Braves bench with his left arm in a cast, but said he would be back in action in about six weeks.
The top-ranked position player entering the event was Tim Beckham, an athletic shortstop from suburban Atlanta. His showing was forgettable, as he went 1-for-9 and his team missed the playoffs, but his tools were apparent, and there were not many scouts who departed too concerned about his lack of performance, given his raw ability.
"I guess he's human after all," said another AL crosschecker. "I don't see who's going to go ahead of him. He's a middle infielder with plus tools and some juice in the bat. He was maybe trying to do a little too much at the plate, but there aren't many players out there that have the upside and complete package of this guy."
Long On Confidence, Arm Strength
Among the top pitchers who were in attendance, senior righthander Gerrit Cole's (Lutheran High, Orange, Calif.) fastball was the best. He pitched as well as he has in any of his major showcase and tournament showings, resting at 95 and touching 97 mph in the first of his two outings. Cole pitched in relief during a driving rain that had the soaked onlookers as fearful for an injury as they were impressed by his power stuff. He's shown similar velocity in the past, but he did it with seemingly less effort, to go along with a dogged demeanor on the mound.
The confident UCLA signee told teammates he was going to reach back for 99 as he waded through the rain to the mound, and while he fell just shy of his prediction, his statement was made loud and clearly.
"I don't think anyone was surprised he threw that hard–he's got amazing arm strength," said another NL crosschecker. "But the slider and changeup were pretty good, too, so even though you look at his delivery and (low-three-quarters) arm slot and think reliever, there's going to be some reason to believe he might have a chance to do more than that."
Daniel Webb made his much-awaited return to the mound, and passed with flying colors. The senior righthander from Heath High in West Paducah, Ky., broke a bone in his left foot during the first inning of an outing in the Kentucky quarterfinal playoffs this spring, and appears to have spent his time off fine-tuning his physique.
His 6-foot-3, 205-pound frame looked chiseled, and when he was pumping 94 mph fastballs into the sixth inning of his outing against one of Houston's top travel teams, he had re-established himself as one of the top righthanders on follow lists for the '08 draft.
Singular Stage
The benefit in attending the event for scouts extends beyond the convenience of having many of the country's top players in one place at one time. The showdowns of top hitters with wood bats against good pitching in a game setting--as opposed to a showcase--is hard to replicate in the spring.
One of the event's most memorable matchups featured a talent-laden California entry in an intense game against a travel team from the Mid-Atlantic, as Aaron Hicks (Wilson High, Long Beach) squared off against Kevin Brady (Gaithersburg, Md., High).
Brady was sensational, as his fastball had late life at the plate and sat between 90-93 mph for four innings. He struck out seven, but so did Hicks, who was up to 94 mph and showed better command of his secondary stuff--an 89 mph cutter, 83-84 mph power breaking ball and 81-83 mph changeup.
"It's the easiest working arm here," said a third AL crosschecker after watching Hicks' outing.
Hicks, who is a switch-hitting right fielder when he's not on the mound, had the only hit Brady allowed. He stroked a single that he pulled through the right side of the infield to push across the game's only run in San Gabriel Arsenal's 1-0 win.
Brady was relieved by Evan Scott, a 6-foot-3 senior righty from Battlefield High in Haymarket, Va., who was under the radar before his outing. Scott, who planned to commit to James Madison during the early signing period, worked off a low-90s fastball with glove-side run that he kept down in the strike zone.
"I don't know where this guy's been, but that made the whole trip down here worth it," said a scout who covers the Mid-Atlantic for an AL team."
The college recruiters were concentrating on underclassmen. As pitching depth stretched thin during the weekend, many teams turned to underclassmen, and some of the pitchers from the Class of 2009 and '10 showed plenty of promise, as well.
The coaches who hung around for the final pitches of a late-night playoff game between an all-star team sponsored by the Texas Rangers and the East Cobb (Ga.) Astros got to see two of the top up-and-coming righthanders face off.
Junior Matt Graham (Oakridge High, Conroe, Texas) touched 94 and pitched at 91 to go along with a 72-74 mph curveball. He made quick work of the Astros lineup, polishing off a two-plus-inning relief outing with a strikeout of Chase Davidson (Milton High, Alpharetta, Ga.) on a 94 mph fastball that painted the black of the outside corner.
"That was his coming out party, right there," said Randy Taylor, a Rangers scout based in Texas who helped coach the team.
The Astros won the game, however, as they called on sophomore Kaleb Cowart (Cook county High, Adel, Ga.) to slam the door in the seventh inning. Cowart, 15, has a smooth delivery, touched 92, mixed in a hammer curveball at 72-75 and struck out two of the three batters he faced.
"I've never been in anything like this," said Graham after the game, in awe at the enormity of the event and the spectacle of the throng of coaches and scouts. "I've been reading about all these guys and the next thing I know I'm on the same field as them. You've got Gerrit Cole throwing 97 on one field, all the golf carts and all the scouts lined up behind the plate. I mean, I've never been on the mound with a sea of radar guns behind the backstop."
DROPS OF JUPITER
• The Orlando Scorpions finished runner-up to the Braves, and Scorpions senior righthander Anthony Figliola (Winter Springs, Fla., High), senior catcher Ben McMahan (Bishop Moore High, Orlando) and junior infielders Ryan Franklin (Lake Brantley High, Altamonte Springs, Fla.) and Nolan Fontana (Winter Garden, Fla., High) were just a few of the teams' top players. Figliola and Niceville (Fla.) High senior lefty Brett DeVall shared most valuable pitcher honors. Both pitchers could be top-five round draft picks in June, with DeVall possibly going in the top 50 picks.
• Before he broke his finger, Skipworth had an opportunity to catch nine different pitchers for the Braves, many of whom could possibly be high picks next year. He said Cole was the best of them all. "I think his fastball had more life to it than I remember him having," said Skipworth, who said it was the sixth time he had caught Cole. "And his command. I just set up and he put it there. I didn't have to move my glove."
• Skipworth's high school teammate was not on the Braves team in Jupiter, but Matt Lollis made yet another strong showing, nonetheless, while pitching for the Orioles Scout Team during pool play. The 6-foot-7, 210-pound senior from Patriot High (Riverside, Calif.) allowed one hit in four shutout innings, working off three pitches he spotted well including a plus fastball. "He shattered six bats in four innings," Dallas Panthers coach Mike Adams said. "He had a heavy, heavy ball, that's what our kids kept saying."
• High school football prevents a lot of two-sport players from participating in this event each year, but Astros first baseman Chase Davidson was determined not to miss the tournament--or his Friday night appointment on the gridiron back home in Alpharetta, Ga. Davidson, who is among the class' upper echelon of pure hitters, went 2-for-3 with a pair of doubles Thursday night, woke up at 3:15 Friday morning to catch a flight home, played offensive line, linebacker and punted in Milton High's football game, then flew back to Florida in time to be in uniform for the Astros noon game on Saturday.
Davidson delivered a pinch-hit walk-off home run in the sixth inning of an 8-0 run-rule win.
"Well, we lost the football game, and I think I must have had nine or 10 punts, but other than a swollen foot and being a little tired and sore, hitting a home run definitely made it worth it," said Davidson, who has committed to play baseball at Georgia, though he's averaging more than 46 yards per punt and says he's received interest from Division-I school for his punting prowess.
"Baseball's what I love, but if I got to punt at Georgia, too, that'd be great."
• The player that improved his stock the most? It may have been shortstop Derrick Gibson (Seaford, Del., High), who went 9-for-19 with three doubles and two triples after many mediocre showings on the showcase circuit this summer.
"He's completely changed his approach from the last time I saw him," said a second NL crosschecker. "He's looser and freer at the plate, so much less restricted and comfortable looking, and he's really hit the ball well. He might be one of the fastest guys here, too."
• Recruiting rules and regulations are changing as often as the recruits themselves. It's been a year since Major League Baseball eliminated the draft-and-follow process, and within this year the NCAA has also made significant changes regarding transfers and roster sizes, limited the number of players a D-I school can have on scholarship from 35 to 25.
Both changes affected the way junior colleges are going about their recruiting, and most juco coaches have turned the changes into a positive for their programs.
"Sure, you no longer have the benefit of scouts helping players they have under control make their way to your school. But even when you did, you had to do your own work to sell your program and make the player see how playing there was going to help," Walters State (Tenn.) JC coach Dave Shelton said. "You still work with scouts to find players that fit your program, you just have to make sure you develop a relationship with the player so they know the benefit of playing at the junior college level.
"If anything, the roster limits have made the biggest difference. Those players who might have been going to the (Atlantic Coast Conference) or the (Southeastern Conference) might be looking at their only scholarship offers coming from the mid-majors now. We've taken the approach of saying, 'Hey, you're dream has always been to play major college baseball, don't give up on that dream. The mid-major school will still be there in two years (in junior college), but the ACC or SEC offer might be there, too, if you develop the way we think you can."
• One of the trickiest parts of evaluating hitters is differentiating from the players who perform well presently from the ones who have the tools to do it in the major leagues. This '08 high school class is loaded with players that might not profile, based on major league qualifications, but have simply shined at almost every major wood bat event they've attended.
Canyon (Texas) High outfielder J.P. Ramirez and Jaff Decker (Sunrise Mountain HS, Peoria, Ariz.), an Arizona State signee, are lefthanded-hitting left fielders who rank right up there with Hosmer in terms of their advanced ability at the plate. Decker sets up a lot like Adam LaRoche of the Pirates, with a high back elbow and narrow, upright and open stance. He repeats his swing extremely well, and fires rockets to the alleys and over the fence. He was 6-for-12 with six RBIs during the tournament, which included an 0-for-3 showing in his final game. Ramirez, who was easily the best uncommitted senior at the event, went 9-for-16 with two triples and two doubles.
Chris Amezquita, a senior from Servite High in Anaheim and Zack Cox (Pleasure Ridge Park HS, Lexington, Ky.) fit a smilar mold. They're very good hitters who might lack the lateral quickness and first-step to reamain in the infield as professionals. Both have done nothing but lace line-drives to all parts of the park since they were old enough to hold a bat, seemingly, with impressive track records dating back to their youth days. Amezquita was 6-for-15 with six RBIs including a game-winning grand slam in Jupiter, and Cox was 7-for-19 with a pair of doubles, a triple and five RBIs.
All four of these players could be All-American candidates in college, though their performance will be weighed as the draft approaches, too.
• Webb wasn't the only senior righthander making a comeback in Jupiter, as Daniel Marrs (James River High, Midlothian, Va.) tossed three innings in his first competitive action since being shutdown with a shoulder injury this spring. His velocity was good--he touched 94 mph--but his command and secondary stuff was understandably shaky. He allowed three unearned runs and three walks with one punch out.