College National Team: Top 20 Prospects
| By Alan Matthews |
| September 25, 2007 |
USA Baseball's college national team is ordinarily the amateur baseball fan's dream team. There's the obvious element of American collegians competing against their counterparts from Asia, South America, Canada and talent-packed Caribbean countries. Team USA competition also offers the purist a chance to see college stars competing with wood bats, where hitters legitimize their abilities and pitchers come right after hitters with their best fastballs.
For some of those same reasons, it's an excellent evaluating stage for scouts in preparation of future drafts, which is why dozens of crosscheckers and scouting directors make sure they take in at least a handful of the college national team's games each summer.
What they saw in 2007, however, was largely uninspiring, by their accounts, in regard to draft-eligible talent.
The lack of a true trials didn't help, and Team USA got underwhleming performances by many of its position players, which was reflected in the team's record, as it lost 12 games, its highest total since 1999. The summer included a second-place finish at the Pan American Games in Brazil and third-place at the World Port Tournament in the Netherlands.
"We know (Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro) Alvarez and (South Carolina first baseman Justin) Smoak are going to be premium drafts, but whether it was a product of (USA Baseball's inability to hold) trials--with having to pick the team based on performance in the spring--or guys opting to play in the Cape (Cod League), there wasn't much to get excited about," said a scouting director with a National League team. "Last year you had (first-rounders David) Price, (Ross) Detwiler, (Daniel) Moskos and position guys like (Julio) Borbon and (J.P.) Arencibia. Go back to (2004) when they had Ryan Zimmerman, Alex Gordon, (Troy) Tulowitzki and that crowd. There have always been talented Team USAs, but for whatever reason, this group just doesn't compare."
We take a closer look at this year's college national team, ranking them in order of their overall professional potential with some consideration to their performance this summer.
1. Pedro Alvarez, 3b (Jr., Vanderbilt)
Smoak followed Alvarez in Team USA’s lineup, and he now follows him on most draft boards as Alvarez outplayed him in every phase of the game on the same diamond.
His .315 average was tops among Team USA regulars, as was his .551 slugging percentage. Alvarez has plus bat speed and power, and his likelihood of reaching his high ceiling as a hitter is enhanced by his feel and instincts at the plate. He lets pitches travel deep and uses his strong wrists and loose hands to drive balls out of all parts of the park.
His lone shortcoming as a hitter is his tendency to chase balls out of the strike zone, but the bigger question is his defense at third base. While he doesn’t necessarily look like a fluid athlete, his hands and actions at third base are fine, and he’s an average runner underway who will take an extra base whenever possible. He has a solid-average arm, though he was limited to DH duties the final four games because of a sore arm.
“You think he’s a thick-hipped, soft Latin guy, but he has better movement than you think initially,” an NL scout said. “He’s an instinctual third baseman with power to his throws and running. He’s not Bobby Bonilla. He’s more of a complete player than you realize.”
2. Justin Smoak, 1b (Jr., South Carolina)
Based solely on performance, Smoak would not have cracked the list. After collecting three doubles and three home runs during Team USA’s six-game tour of the New England Collegiate League, Smoak went 20-for-102 without any more homers, finishing with paltry .223/.291/.380 numbers. The performance was atypical for Smoak, who tore up the Cape Cod League last summer and batted .315/.434/.631 as a sophomore at South Carolina. He has plus raw power from both sides of the plate and a swing that has leverage.
Changeups gave him fits this summer, and he didn’t adjust quickly, often lacking balance spinning off the ball and failing to recognize pitches consistently. He’s a poor runner, but has good hands and playable arm strength and footwork at first base.
“I couldn’t pick out anything mechanically in his swing that was an obvious concern,” an American League scout said. “We expect the world from this guy because he set the bar so high. In the end, it’s one summer and I think you can give that type of player a pass because he’s done so much.”
3. Brian Matusz, lhp (Jr., San Diego)
Although Team USA's lineup lacked punch, the pitching staff more than held its own, albeit while most of it seemed to be running on empty. Matusz and righthanders Jacob Thompson and Lance Lynn were penciled in as America's top three starters, but all of them spent the summer trying to get by without their best stuff. Shortly after the team returned from Rio de Janeiro, the trio left the team, citing fatigue as the primary reason.
The coaching staff lauded Matusz and Thompson for their perseverance, which was evident in the Pan Am Games during the semifinals when Matusz held Mexico to one run in a 2-1 win that helped the team advance to the gold-medal game against Cuba. Matusz' fastball velocity was mostly 86-89 mph, touching 92, and his command wasn't as sharp as it was this spring when he went 10-3, 2.85 with 37 walks and 163 strikeouts in 123 innings for the Toreros.
His changeup has potential to be a legitimate put-away pitch, and his 75 mph curveball has nice deception, as well. He's pitched closer to 90-92, touching 94 in the past, and because of his 6-foot-4 frame and three-quarters arm slot, he has the tools to become a middle-of-the-rotation starter and one of the top college pitchers drafted next year.
4. Brett Hunter, rhp (Jr., Pepperdine)
When asked if there was an outing of Hunter's that stood out from the rest, Team USA pitching coach Bob Kinneberg, Utah's head coach, responded, "I don't think there was an outing from the Pan Ams on that didn't stand out."
A stocky righthander with a fearless approach, Hunter went 3-0, 0.66 with 31 strikeouts and 10 walks in 27 innings, seizing a role as a late-inning door-slammer for Team USA midway through the summer. He struck out three of the four Japanese hitters he faced in the World Port Tournament opener, a 1-0 U.S. win. His delivery and arm action aren't pretty, but when he keeps his weight back over the rubber and stays on top of the ball, he gets to a power release point. What comes out is a 94-96 mph fastball, short, tight slider at 81 mph and an 87 mph two-seamer. His fastball has heavy life and sink, especially to the arm-side. He works quickly and attacks hitters, throwing inside to both righthanders and lefties.
"He's a little erratic and he's going to struggle to repeat that delivery, but you look at the draft and guys with good bodies throwing 95 usually don't last real long," an AL scout said.
5. Jacob Thompson, rhp (Jr., Virginia)
Like Smoak, Thompson's performance this spring was much better than his summer. For the second year in a row, he eclipsed the 100-inning mark in college, posting a 1.50 ERA with a strikeout-walk ratio of better than 3-1 as a sophomore in '07.
His lack of command was the most notable difference during his truncated tour with Team USA, as he pitched deep in counts and walked eight in 21 innings with 13 strikeouts before leaving the team. He was lifted after being roughed up by Cuba in four innings during the Pan Am Games in his most important start of the summer.
His coaches described Thompson as a perfectionist with a Type-A personality, and they were confident Thompson would bounce back and again show the ability to command three pitches like he has at Virginia. His stuff and command fall somewhere in the range of pitchers such as Kevin Slowey and James Simmons. This summer, his fastball ranged between 87-90 mph. His curveball showed occasional plus break with 11-to-5 shape and depth, and his changeup is a third weapon.
6. Tyson Ross, rhp (Jr., California)
The starter that picked up the slack for the worn-down staff was Ross. He was the team's most consistent pitcher, and earned a reputation as the go-to guy when it needed a strong start. He struck out seven with four hits in six-plus innings against the Dominican Republic in Rio de Janeiro, then came back and worked two shutout innings of relief against Cuba with three strikeouts in the gold-medal game after Thompson was chased in the fifth inning.
His mechanics belie his stuff, because he's upright in his delivery and doesn't get much extension. Ross has a hard time landing his fastball to his glove side and struggles with the consistency of his slider. But Ross got plenty of empty swings, racking up 39 strikeouts with just seven walks and a 0.82 ERA in a team-high 44 innings. His fastball sat between 86-88 mph with occasional life and plus movement and his 78-81 mph slider has short, hard break at times. He mixes all three of his pitches--including a fair changeup--effectively, works quickly and is also a very good athlete.
"The challenge of pro baseball will be to change him or leave him the same," Kinneberg said. "Is he a reliever or starter? At the beginning of the summer I would have said 'we need to lengthen you out and change some things.' But at the end of the summer, after seeing how dominant he was, I'm not sure you have to change a thing."
7. Brett Wallace, 1b/dh (Jr., Arizona State)
The Pacific-10 Conference Triple Crown winner and a first-team All-American as a sophomore, Wallace knows how to handle the bat. He spent most of the summer batting behind Alvarez and Smoak, and made consistent contact, posting a .312 average and .345 on-base percentage. He joined the team after Arizona State was eliminated in the College World Series and homered in his first at-bat, but managed just one more homer and four doubles the rest of the summer.
He's a mature hitter who drives balls to both gaps and has mastered the backside single. He'll show above-average bat speed and average raw power in batting practice, but it didn't translate to games with wood. All his value lies in his bat, as Wallace is a below-average runner and lacks the mobility to play the outfield as a professional, so he's likely locked into a role as a first baseman or designated hitter. As a result, the development of his power will dictate his draft stock.
8. Lance Lynn, rhp, (Jr., Mississippi)
Lynn opted to shut it down along with Thompson and Matusz when the team returned from Rio de Janeiro, citing fatigue and a nagging groin injury. His 25 innings for Team USA brought him to 110 for the year, compared to 143 for Matusz and Thompson's 135. Lynn's velocity was also down from the spring, as he pitched near 88 mph, touching 92 occasionally, and fared well working primarily off his fastball, posting a .136 opponents' average.
The big-bodied righthander has solid-average fastball command, moving the ball around the zone effectively. His 11-to-5 curveball has good shape and deception, but like his fastball, isn't a separating offering. His fringe-average changeup completes a repertoire that fits in the back of a rotation.
"This guy knows how to get empty swings," an AL scout said. "I'm not completely sure how, but he's jamming bats at 87-88. Is it deception? He has some finish to his fastball, and if he takes his conditioning more seriously I could see him being drafted as high as the supplemental round."
9. Preston Paramore, c (Jr., Arizona State)
A career .353/.473/.496 hitter with metal in two years as ASU's starting catcher, no player epitomized this team's offensive struggles more than Paramore. He was a key figure in the Sun Devils' run to Omaha during the spring, but batted .111--the lowest average of any Team USA regular this decade--and was hitless in his last 25 at-bats on the summer. He was one of two everyday players to walk (20) more than he struck out (16), but Paramore's patience at the plate too often found him behind in counts, and he managed just one extra-base hit in 63 at-bats. He's shown solid-average bat speed and raw power in the past, but his swing was long and he didn't make consistent hard contact this summer, possibly because of fatigue.
"I think you have to go back to their spring stats--I can't tell you how many times I must have said that when analyzing these hitters," an NL scout said. "He's a switch-hitting catcher that has some idea what he's doing behind the plate, so while he's played poorly (this summer), I don't think anyone's giving up on him."
Paramore has average arm strength with a clean release. His footwork and receiving should become adequate as he develops. He could play with more energy.
10. Ryan Flaherty, 2b (Jr., Vanderbilt)
Flaherty started his summer on a tear, just missing hitting for the cycle against Keene, but batted just .235-1-8 after the team's six-game stint in New England. He's an exceptional college player who has outstanding feel for all phases of the game and fringe-average tools across the board.
He has a sound approach at the plate, with a willingness to work counts and use the middle of the field and an ability to put the ball in play with regularity. He lacks the bat speed to hit for plus power with wood, and doesn't have the foot speed or range to stick at shortstop, his position with the Commodores. He has an average arm and has average speed underway. His savvy, instincts and quick first step should allow him to handle second base, and ultimately he has value as a reliable utility man in the big leagues who could hit for average.
11. Cody Satterwhite, rhp (Jr., Mississippi)
During a summer that saw three of Team USA's top pitchers leave the team early, Satterwhite made a strong impression with his resiliency and willingness to take the ball under any circumstances. He saved both ends of a doubleheader in Rio de Janeiro during the Pan Am Games, including a 2-1 win against Mexico that earned the team a trip to the gold medal game.
Satterwhite has plus arm strength and a body pro scouts adore. His fastball was reaching the mid-90s by the time he was a senior in high school, but he's always had a hard time repeating his delivery. He sat between 92-94 mph this summer, and he pitched off his fastball. Satterwhite has below-average command and below-average secondary stuff. His breaking ball is slurvy, and every fifth one he throws will show good three-quarter break with good spin.
"He might have the most upside of anyone we had because of the body and arm strength," Kinneberg said. "He's going to be a man pretty soon, and he's going to be a force to deal with."
12. Mike Minor, lhp (Soph., Vanderbilt)
Minor was Vandy's Saturday starter as a freshman in 2007, and thanks to his poise and feel for pitching, he figures to replace David Price, the 2007 No. 1 overall pick and College Player of the Year, as the Commodores' ace in 2008. He finished second to Ross in strikeouts with 37, and with just four walks in 33 innings, Minor showed that he could carve up international competition primarily off two pitches and plus command.
His fastball sat between 88-90 mph this summer, and he can spot it to all four quadrants of the strike zone. He maintains his arm speed on his 79-80 mph changeup, which has above-average fade and sink. He'll use it in all counts and double up with it. Minor's breaking ball is a below-average offering that he's struggled with since his days in high school. It's an 81-83 mph slider that lacks depth and breaks across the zone.
"He has a special feel for what he's doing out there," an AL scout said, "He has plus command and plus pitchability. His lack of a breaking ball was a problem out of high school and his breaking ball still sucks. He's a Wade LeBlanc type. The lack of breaking ball will be his Achilles' heel the rest of his career."
13. Logan Forsythe, of/3b (Jr., Arkansas)
Due to the injury of Miami second baseman Jemile Weeks, the college national team sorely missed the presence of a table-setter to reach base in front of Alvarez, Smoak and Wallace, but Forsythe did his best to fill that role. Team USA's best righthanded hitter, he also came up with his share of clutch hits, such as the two-run single against Mexico in the medal round of the Pan Am Games.
As a righthanded hitter with modest power who lacks the actions for the middle of the diamond, Forsythe profiles as somewhat of a tweener when evaluating his tools. He has solid-average bat speed, drives balls well to both alleys and has good feel for the strike zone. He's a smart, aggressive baserunner who turned in 4.2-second home-to-first times this summer, making him an above-average runner.
Primarily a third baseman at Arkansas, Forsythe spent most of the summer in left field, and while he doesn't hit for enough power to profile on the corners as a professional, he got good jumps, took the right routes on line drives and boosted his stock as a potential utility man. It might be a stretch, but there could conceivably be a team out there that gives him a chance to play center field or second base, which would maximize his value.
"He scuffled with the bat as a freshman, but really improved as his sophomore season went on," an NL scout said. "I love the results he gives you. He's a gritty hitter and the type of guy from a tools perspective that you don't say, 'Wow,' but he has quality at-bats, works counts and gets his pitch."
14. Jordan Danks, of (Jr., Texas)
Because of a powerful lefthanded bat and the ability to handle center field, Danks offers an intriguing package. He started the summer as Team USA's leadoff hitter, struggled at the outset, then finished the tour with a good showing at the World Port Tournament.
Danks, whose older brother John pitches for the White Sox, has a fluid game and a sweet swing with average bat speed. He has average raw power, but his thin frame lacks significant room for additional growth, and he doesn't have a tremendous feel for hitting. He led the team in walks with 25 but also struck out a team-high 36 times in 115 at-bats. He struggled significantly making adjustments against some of the Asian pitchers who had good secondary stuff. He's an average defender with solid-average speed to profile as a serviceable defender in center field.
15. Roger Kieschnick, of (Jr., Texas Tech)
The cousin of former big leaguer Brooks Kieschnick and a member of the '06 U.S. college national team, Kieschnick had a good summer, tying Alvarez for the team home runs lead (seven). That followed an explosive spring with Texas Tech, when he hit 13 homers and led the Big 12 Conference with 25 doubles.
Kieschnick has plus raw power despite his fringe-average bat speed. He has strong wrists and forearms, and most of his home runs come from his ability to overpower the ball, rather than a product of a pure swing path or bat speed. While he has some feel for the strike zone and pitch recognition, he's overly aggressive and prone to striking out. He improved his outfield defense and has an average arm, but he's a below-average runner who lacks premium athletic ability. His value is tied in to his bat.
16. Jordy Mercer, rhp/ss (Jr., Oklahoma State)
Thanks to Mercer's versatility and hard-nosed approach, he landed a spot on the national team. While he was used predominantly as a middle infielder his first two seasons at Oklahoma State, he showed the best on the mound this summer for Team USA and may have raised his profile as an unrefined athlete with a quick arm and some room for improvement on the mound.
Mercer works off a 91-92 mph fastball that has some late life when it's down in the zone. He's aggressive, comes after hitters and works quickly. He has a changeup, slider and curveball, but presently his slider is the only secondary offering that shows put-away potential. It comes in at 79 mph with tight spin and occasional plus break.
17. Danny Espinosa, ss (Jr., Long Beach State)
Espinosa has a long track record with USA Baseball, as he starred on the 2003 youth national team that won a gold medal at the World Youth Championships in Taiwan. He got off to a miserable 0-for-20 start playing for his LBSU head coach, Mike Weathers, but his slick fielding kept him in the lineup.
A glove-first shortstop, Espinosa has above-average speed and range, with supple hands, a quick first step, good instincts and body control in the infield. He has an average arm that plays up because he makes quick, clean exchanges on throws and has good footwork on double plays. He has below-average bat speed and didn't look comfortable at the plate this summer. His approach vacillates from at-bat to at-bat, and when he falls behind in the count, he'll swing and miss against breaking balls. He has good barrel awareness and showed the ability to get bunts down well.
18. Eric Surkamp, lhp (Jr., North Carolina State)
A Moeller High (Cincinnati) teammate of Andrew Brackman's, Surkamp took over N.C. State's Friday night starter role as a sophomore and pitched admirably. He made two appearances in New England before Team USA trimmed its roster, then was invited back to the team when Lynn, Thompson and Matusz left. The 6-foot-5, 216-pound southpaw earned his lone win when he held Japan to four hits with two walks and five strikeouts in seven innings during the World Port Tournament.
He's a soft-tossing lefty with a good feel for pitching. Surkamp's fastball sits at 86-87 mph and he complements it with average offerings in his changeup and curveball. He doesn't have a separating pitch, but has plus control and average command, and he repeats his delivery. With his size and clean arm action, he could add a bit of velocity down the road.
19. Scott Gorgen, rhp (Jr., UC Irvine)
Gorgen was a key ingredient to UC Irvine's run to the College World Series, and when Team USA needed some pitchers to fill the staff, he was the perfect choice. Lauded for his moxie and dogged demeanor, Gorgen made just two starts for the squad, but one of them was a six-inning outing against Cuba at the World Port Tournament, when he struck out 10 in six innings before departing with a 3-2 deficit. "I loved this guy," Kinneberg said. "His competitiveness is off the charts."
Gorgen's fastball sat at 88-89 mph. He'll work it to both sides of the plate and shows solid-average command. At 5-foot-10, it's difficult for him to create plane on his fastball.
20. Joe Kelly, rhp (So., UC Riverside)
Kelly was a valuable piece of Team USA's bullpen following his freshman season at UC Riverside. He struggled to spot his pitches, walking seven with nine strikeouts in 12 innings, and remains an unfinished product, based in part to the fact he was not pitching full-time as a prep.
His fastball ranged between 91-93 mph with occasional arm-side run and sink. He pitched off it, doing his best to establish it on both halves of the plate. He has a long, slingy arm action that makes it difficult to find his release point with consistency and leads to well-below-average command. His breaking ball and changeup are rudimentary offerings that are difficult to project based on his arm action.