2007 Draft Will Be One Worth Watching
| By Alan Matthews |
| May 17, 2007 |
So, the draft is on TV, you say?
It's about time, Baseball America answers. And as our readers know, it should be great theater to listen and watch this most inexact, unpredictable practice of 30 international businesses investing millions of dollars into stock in which past performance really isn't a guarantee of future value.
***image1***Maybe there's a good reason why Major League Baseball's draft hasn't had significant mainstream exposure. Sure, it's the source of approximately 70 percent of major league players on active rosters today, but given the enormity of the pool of players available and the hurdles in their path to the big leagues, the draft doesn't come with a script and isn't exactly made-for-television stuff.
It's where No. 1 picks injure their pitching arms in fights before graduating from the minor leagues, and 1,390th picks become Hall of Famers. For every Brien Taylor tragedy there's a tale of Mike Piazza. It's all part of the draft, and if you like a good mystery, pull up a chair for the 2007 proceedings.
Although each draft has winners and losers, it seems appropriate that a year that is marked by the first-ever live TV broadcast of the event offers one of the best selections of players in recent memory.
Abundance Of Options
The 2007 draft will have historical significance because of the TV coverage, but in the future it's likely this draft will be remembered most for its diversity and depth of talent. There are dozens of impact-potential players available this year.
***image2***The talent comes in all shapes and sizes: power-hitting outfielders, pure middle infielders, high school pitchers with eye-popping arm strength, and an intriguing crop of college lefthanders. The pool of college position players is thinner than it has been in most years, though the plethora of high school players supplements any shortcomings. The talent in this year's draft will drip deep throughout the oversized supplemental and second rounds.
"If you want a good college pitcher, you're going to have to take him early," said a national crosschecker with an American League organization. "There is much more depth in the high school players. After you get past the first wave of college players—the top five or six guys—there's just so much dropoff from there. The difference in the high school talent isn't as great. There's better distribution throughout."
There is a consensus on two things in this year's draft: First, the top eight or nine players have separated themselves. Second, after that group there's no consensus at all. The song almost every scout was singing was one of optimism underscored by uncertainty.
"It's a weird year because in the past you had 30 or 35 guys that have a chance to go in the first round," the crosschecker said. "This year I'd say there are easily 45 guys that could go in the first round."
"After you get past those top seven or eight, who knows who's going next," said a scouting director with an AL team. "The same guy that you might expect to go 15 could go 40 and vice versa."
Vanderbilt lefthander David Price; Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters; California prep corner infielders Josh Vitters and Mike Moustakas; Georgia prep outfielder Jason Heyward; college pitchers Ross Detwiler, Andrew Brackman and Daniel Moskos; and high school pitchers Rick Porcello, Jarrod Parker and Matt Harvey can probably be found at or near the top of almost every team's draft board. Of the elite company, only Parker is a newcomer, as the nation's top players have all basically remained in the same spots, with some shuffling over the course of the spring.
But for the teams picking in the middle and end of the first round, their choices will come down to personal preference, and there is no certainty which of the second-tier group of players will fly off the board first.
But unlike the 2005 draft, when there was a consensus on the top 10 or 12 players and mediocrity after that, no one's complaining about picking 15th or 25th this year. They might not be exactly sure who is going to be there when their pick comes around, but there will be plenty of players worthy of the choice.
Part of the uncertainty of the first round lies in the distribution of talent. Many teams have leaned on choosing players with four-year college experience with their early picks in recent years. But this draft could be the first since 2002 in which collegians don't outnumber high schoolers in the first round. Make no mistake, the cream of this year's crop lies in the high school class. From the projectable power pitchers from the Northeast to the West Coast sluggers and an interesting collection of talent dispersed between, this class has promise. The challenge teams face is figuring out which ones will fulfill their potential and which ones will not.
On the other hand, no category of players is thinner than righthanded college starters. In that vein, perhaps it's a blessing to some teams that have adopted the philosophy of taking the "safe" college pitcher instead of the "risky" high school player early in the draft. There are always going to be first-round busts, but because high school players are so clearly ahead of their college counterparts this year, a scenario could unfold where conservative teams opt to roll the dice and pop a high schooler.
Think Sinatra forced to sing a duet with Gwen Stefani.
Three To Make One
Devil Rays scouting director R.J. Harrison has been a member of the Tampa Bay scouting department since the franchise's inception. He's a part of a staff that picks No. 1 for the third time in nine years. After taking Josh Hamilton in 1999 and Delmon Young in 2003, it's a process he has become comfortable with, and he and his staff have systematically narrowed their options over the last four months.
Harrison said his staff discussed its strategy at the outset of the season, arranged their follow lists and set out to trim the field. Paring the potential picks wasn't simple, but by May 1 the pool of contenders for No. 1 had been cut to three.
"We've tried to keep the thing wide open as long as we could all spring," Harrison said. "If you look back at drafts, there are a lot of good players that wind up not being the first pick. We've kept a real open mind, did our work, met in April and broke it down. We had sizable list at that point, so we went back out and have whittled it down a little bit.
"We're at three guys."
When asked if the Devil Rays' three were the same players regarded as having the best overall package of tools, upside and performance—Price, Wieters and Vitters—Harrison just chuckled and acknowledged, "Those are three pretty good players there on the top of your list . . . I don't think there are a lot of secrets this year."
Though Vitters has shown remarkable consistency and an approach at the plate that has prompted some scouts to proclaim him the draft's best pure hitter, discussion in the Devil Rays' draft room will likely come down to Price versus Wieters.
Price, Vandy's 6-foot-4 lefty with three plus pitches, command and an easy delivery, has held the pole position in BA's rankings since winning Summer Player of the Year honors in 2006. Wieters has remained at No. 2 almost as long. Ultimately the Devil Rays' decision will come down to which player they determine has the best long-term value, which is a compelling debate.
"If Price is a No. 2 starter and Wieters is an all-star catcher, which one is more valuable?" said another crosschecker with an AL club, who went on to say that Wieters was the best amateur catcher he'd seen other than Joe Mauer. "I would make a case for Wieters over Price at one. With the switch-hitting, the power and he catches so easy . . . If you think it's tougher to find an all-star catcher than a No. 2 starter, you can make a case for the all-star catcher, though most teams might go with the No. 2 starter, especially if he's a lefty.
"And if you think Price is a No. 1 (starter), I don't think you can pass him up."
Extra Helpings
The debate over No. 1 isn't the only intriguing aspect worth following in the '07 draft. Changes made to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement last year created a supplemental first round that could reach 35 picks if Max Scherzer doesn't sign with the Diamondbacks.
Several teams have a gaggle of extra picks, including the Giants, with six picks in the first 51, including three first-rounders. The Rangers have five choices in the first 54 slots, the Blue Jays have five of the first 56 and the Padres have six of the first 64. (Conversely, the Astros' first pick doesn't come until No. 112 overall.)
How these teams choose to spend their picks will have a ripple effect on the rest of the draft. Rangers scouting director Ron Hopkins acknowledged that he watched the free-agent market with a new sense of interest, knowing how it could potentially affect the draft.
"As the summer unfolded it became obvious that the Rangers had a chance to possibly pick up some extra picks, so we definitely took no shortcuts last summer," Hopkins said. "We didn't leave any stones unturned, knowing that we might have some extra picks. We hit all the showcases, Cape Cod, the Alaska League.
"If we're going to have five of 54, I'm glad we're doing it this year."
Of course, in order to take full advantage of the extra picks, teams will have to be willing to spend the money to sign all those players. Hopkins declined to discuss how Rangers ownership structured his budget, but don't be surprised if a handful of college players are drafted higher than their value would suggest. This could provide teams with extra picks an opportunity to stretch their budgets.
"College position players are going to be by far the most inflated guys in this draft," a second AL scouting director said. "You're going to see guys like (Oklahoma State's ) Corey Brown and (Georgia Tech's ) Danny Payne going way higher than people actually have them on their boards."
It should make for great theater, and this year, for the first time, we can all watch.