Draft Dish: Midseason Update
Class features more depth, but less in the way of star talent after Priceeams trade zeroes for 19 innings in marathon game
| By Alan Matthews |
| April 20, 2007 |
Since his season began at the Astros College Classic in Houston in early February, Vanderbilt junior David Price has sat at the top of the list of 2007 draft prospects.
Nothing he has done since then has changed that status.
| TOP 10 CATCHERS | ||
| While the position-player ranks are considered very thin in the college ranks, catcher stands out as one of the better positions in the class. The high school class also provides several solid catching options. Offense is ahead of defense for both Arencibia and Rams and both could move to other spots. As usual, some of the top future catchers in the class are not playing catcher at this time but will be moved behind the plate eventually, such as Chatsworth (Calif.) High shortstop Mike Moustakas. | ||
| Rk. | Player, School | Round |
| 1. | Matt Wieters, Georgia Tech | First |
| 2. | Mitch Canham, Oregon State | First |
| 3. | Yasmani Grandal, Miami Springs HS | Second |
| 4. | J.P. Arencibia, Tennessee | Second |
| 5. | Jonathan Lucroy, La.-Lafayette | Second/Third |
| 6. | Travis d’Arnaud, Lakewood (Calif.) HS | Third |
| 7. | Danny Rams, Gulliver Prep, Miami | Fourth |
| 8. | Ed Easley, Mississippi State | Third/Fourth |
| 9. | Preston Clark, Texas | Fourth |
| 10. | Devin Mesaraco, Punxsutawney (Pa.) HS | Fifth |
Devil Rays scouting director R.J. Harrison said the organization was not locked in on only one player. But scouting directors contacted by Baseball America concur the Devil Rays, who hold the No. 1 overall pick, are poised to draft Price come June, due not only to his size, powerful left arm and improving polish, but also because he’s advised by Bo McKinnis, an agent whom they have dealt with before (albeit with a previous administration) when they drafted Dewon Brazelton No. 3 overall in 2001.
Beyond Price, however, nothing about the draft class seems certain, in terms of which players will be drafted where. Usual standbys such as college righthanders—considered a safer commodity and one always needed by any farm system—and middle infielders are harder to find than in any draft class in recent memory. The college position-player class, other than a solid group of catchers, wows no one.
However, the consensus appears to be that the class of ’07 has depth, particularly among high school players. That will come in handy considering the first round is followed by a supplemental first round that stretches for a record 34 picks—35 if the Diamondbacks fail to sign 2006 first-rounder Max Scherzer, a righthander out of Missouri.
Scherzer’s agent is Scott Boras. Scherzer didn’t attend school in the fall and is following Boras’ Luke Hochevar playbook, having spent his time working out in Boras’ athlete development program and preparing for a stint with Hochevar’s old independent league outfit, the Fort Worth Cats (see Page 5). If Scherzer re-enters the draft, he would join a dozen other notable prospects—from high schoolers such as top-rated righthanders Matt Harvey and Rick Porcello to college players such as top-rated catcher Matt Wieters, righthander Andrew Brackman and outfielder Julio Borbon—who look to Boras for draft advice.
“Boras is in this draft, big-time,” said one National League scouting director, “and that’s a factor. You just can’t ignore it.”
Added one American League counterpart, “I wouldn’t say it’s unavoidable (to draft a Boras client), but I cannot remember this type of volume of his clients at the top of the draft . . . You take that, and the fact there are a lot of guys who are at kind of the same talent level, where separating the players is tough . . . this is going to be a very hard draft to predict. It might be like 2004, where no one knew a day or two before the draft who would draft (Boras clients) Stephen Drew and Jered Weaver, even though everyone knew they were two of the best players available. You’re just going to have to put guys on a board, line them up how you like them and how you saw them (play), and see how it plays out.”
Preps Plus
The high school class offers much more variety and talent than the college class, which was already picked over in the 2004 draft. That year, the two highest unsigned high school players who went to college were a fifth-rounder (Pepperdine outfielder Adrian Ortiz) and a seventh-rounder (Kent State righty Chris Carpenter), but the top talents in the high school Class of ’04 signed as professionals. That’s a major reason the college class looks lackluster.
Another factor is the depth of the prep class. It starts with Harvey and Porcello, hard-throwing righthanders who both are Boras clients and both have college commitments to North Carolina. Scouts are split on which of the two is better so far, but Porcello has thrown better in 2007. They’ve been joined as possible top-10 picks by North Carolina prep lefthander Madison Bumgarner, 6-foot-7 Texas righty Blake Beavan, and Canadian righty Phillippe Aumont, whose 6-foot-7, 225-pound frame and occasional mid-90s gas get scouts excited. His opposite is Indiana prep righty Jarrod Parker, a small-boned, slender 6-footer who nevertheless generates easy mid-90s heat. Parker has touched 98 mph but his size could deter scouts, though perhaps not as much as the radar gun readings attract them.
The prep class also has more hitters to offer, including the most respected bat in the draft class overall, California prep third baseman Josh Vitters. While a bout with pneumonia has weakened Vitters somewhat, he still performed well in front of searing scouting heat in early April at the Loara tournament in March and again at the Anaheim Lions Tournament in April. His biggest rivals as prep hitters are Chatsworth (Calif.) High teammates Matt Dominguez, an outstanding defender at third base with plus power, and sweet-swinging Mike Moustakas, an excellent hitter without a defined position. Moustakas, whose tools might fit best at catcher, has a firm Southern California commitment and also is a Boras client.
Several athletic high school outfielders still could get drafted highly, even though they have had somewhat disappointing springs. Coming into the season, many clubs had Tampa right fielder Michael Burgess among the top prep bats, but his stock has fallen as he’s had trouble making consistent contact. His tools and 2006 summer performance still could land him in the first round, but Georgia’s Jason Heyward has surpassed him as the top prep outfield option.
Campus Intrigue
The lack of college position players could drive teams to the high school ranks. Georgia Tech’s Wieters—a 6-foot-6 catcher with a cannon arm that pumps 94 mph fastballs off the mound—has inspired some comparisons to Jason Varitek, another switch-hitting Yellow Jackets catcher. However, he’s far from a sure thing due to his unusual size and a bat that’s been good in college but not quite great, particularly in his junior season (.338/.469/.583, seven home runs in 139 at-bats). And the college middle-infield class is populated mostly by players who project as utility players, with Rutgers’ Todd Frazier (.388/.503/.761) the best bat but projected as a third baseman or corner outfielder. The growing consensus has North Carolina’s Josh Horton (.338/.471/.519, 32-5 BB-K ratio) as the top hitting middle infielder and the choice of clubs that want a polished college bat, with Pepperdine’s Danny Worth (.372/ .450/.549) emerging as the defender who can stay at short with the best chance to hit.
The top college righty coming into the season, the 6-foot-10 Brackman, played two seasons of basketball and North Carolina State, and his 2007 season is his first as a full-time pitcher. The results (just 53 strikeouts in 61 IP, 6-3, 3.67) fall into the solid category, but his stuff (upper-90s fastball, power spike curveball) has been at times spectacular. He’s considered raw but could demand a contract similar to that of Cubs righthander Jeff Samardzija, also a two-sport player, who got a guaranteed $10 million deal in January. They have similar athleticism and stuff, with Brackman showing more consistent velocity and breaking stuff.
No other college righthander has emerged as anything more than a supplemental first-round talent. While the likes of Texas Christian righty Jake Arrieta (inconsistent), Borbon (recovering from a broken ankle) and Georgia closer Joshua Fields (much better last summer) have disappointed this spring somewhat, some college players have improved their draft lot.
Lefthanders Ross Detwiler of Missouri State, with good present stuff and a projectable 6-foot-4, 175-pound body, and Daniel Moskos of Clemson have positioned themselves as top-10 picks atop a deep group of college southpaws. Sluggers such as Florida’s Matt LaPorta, a senior, and Lewis-Clark State’s Beau Mills—tearing up NAIA competition at the Idaho superpower to the tune of .477/.549/1.007 with 21 homers in 37 games—have moved up draft boards, even though both are probably limited to first base. More athletic but less heralded, Cal Poly outfielder Grant Desme (.393/.479/.762, 11 homers in 122 at-bats) has shown one of the class’ best combinations of power and speed, moving into first-round consideration despite a lackluster first two seasons between Cal Poly and San Diego State.