Draft Dish: April 6
With power in short supply, '07 draft could feature promise from back of the pack
| By Alan Matthews |
| April 6, 2007 |
Given the scarcity of front-line college position players in this year's draft class, finding power hitters isn't going to be easy. The class is deep and well rounded in many categories, but there are very few hitters that can legitimately grade out as above-average power hitters at present, especially among college players, which is the source many teams rely on for acquiring the coveted tool via the draft.
"It's a very weak power class," said a scouting director with an American League club. "I see guys that have potential to have power but you don't see the raw, big-time power. There is going to be a wide range of opinion on this class of hitters."
Georgia Tech junior catcher Matt Wieters was the consensus best draft-eligible position player entering the season, and while his performance this spring has not been overwhelming (he was batting .325/.453/.558 with six homers in 120 at-bats), his track record and polished approach at the plate seem to mitigate any real concerns whether he'll reach his ceiling as a middle-of-the-order run producer in the majors.
But after Wieters, opinions are split widely on the next best college power prospect.
"It's basically going to be hit and miss with these guys," the scouting director said. "It's never cut and dried with the power guys. You're hoping (a certain player) can continue to use his power when he gets to the next level, but it doesn't always pan out, and this year that might hold true even more than usual."
As a result, the high school trio of Mike Burgess (Tampa), Jason Heyward (McDonough, Ga.) and Josh Vitters (Cypress, Calif.) will begin to draw consideration earlier in the draft than the typical high school hitters might have in draft classes featuring better college hitters. Vitters has elevated himself as the top hitter in the high school class, and while Burgess and Heyward weren't seeing much to hit in high school competition, like the evaluation of Wieters, their strong showings last summer and fall provide them with a sort of insurance policy.
Volatile Market
But two Texas sluggers have taken significant steps forward this spring, establishing themselves as possible players teams might bite on in an effort to snag a future power hitter, though they lack the long-standing track records of success.
Texas outfielder Kyle Russell, a draft eligible sophomore, was considered among the top hitters in an extremely lackluster crop of high school hitters when he was a senior at Tomball (Texas) High in 2005. But he struggled to make consistent contact, and opted to head to college.
His performance last summer in the Cape Cod League was in line with his checkered track record out of high school, but this spring Russell was leading the NCAA in home runs with 18 and was a name scouts across the Midwest have burned the midnight oil debating.
"Half the teams don't believe it at all," said a crosschecker with an AL team who refuted Russell's eye-popping performance thus far. "(Because of) the swing. It's an aluminum-bat, grooved swing in some people's opinion. And I'm sure that somebody will take him way up there, but . . . there are some teams that have him (valued) in the fourth or fifth round.
"With all the numbers and statistics, you'd think he'd be the one guy that would be the consensus guy out there, but there are a lot of people that don't believe it's going to translate with wood."
Of course, because of the extreme subjectivity in evaluating power hitters, position players that clubs peg with power ready to blossom always seem to emerge late in the spring. Scottsdale, Ariz., prep product Brandon Wood made the jump in 2003, and in 2001 Chris Young made the jump from a thin, underdeveloped high school product to a future runs machine. He was drafted in the 16th round by the White Sox and was the Diamondbacks' Opening Day center fielder this year.
Coincidently, Young's alma mater, Bellaire High in suburban Houston, is where you can find this year's late-but-fast riser. Senior Matt West, a 6-foot-2, 195-pound shortstop, was known mostly for his arm strength off the mound entering this season. But he has gone on a tear for the nationally ranked Cardinals, and has been the buzz of the Lone Star State of late.
"Bellaire High School, that's where they all used to come out of, and West's the guy nobody knew much about coming into the year," said the crosschecker, making reference to the program that has produced Chuck Knoblauch, Jose Cruz Jr., Jeff Davanon and Bubba Crosby, as well as Young. "He hits balls hard. He makes contact, he's got some loft and has hit some balls far."
West was batting .638 (37-for-58) with 10 doubles, two triples and six home runs, although his competition isn't as stout as some other Texas high school teams.
Swamp Monster
While West and Russell made jumps in Texas, there has been a reptilian resurrection in Florida. Gators senior first baseman Matt LaPorta saw his draft stock fall precipitously last spring when an early-season injury spiraled into a season-long slump that led him to return to college.
Concerns remain about his ability to make consistent contact, but he's rediscovered the power stroke that made him one of the top mashers in college in 2005. LaPorta was batting .433/.587/.942 with 15 home runs.
"He's just on fire. He's been pretty locked in," said one crosschecker. "Much better than last year."
LaPorta can drive balls out to all parts of the park, and in a draft which lacks a consensus crop of power hitters, he'll likely receive the generous signing bonus he thought awaited him last June, albeit after returning to school as a senior.
DRAFT DOPE
• In Scottsdale, Ariz., a pair of precocious righthanders squared off in front of approximately 50 scouts in the Cleats National high school Invitational. Tim Alderson, the ace of the tournament's host, Horizon High, out-dueled Bishop Gorman High (Las Vegas) righthander Taylor Cole, whose fastball touched 95 mph. Alderson needed just 79 pitches, 51 of which were strikes, on his way to a 6-0 shutout of the Gaels, who were ranked 16th in the latest Baseball America/National High School Baseball Coaches Association Top 50. "He's the real freaking deal," a scout said. "He's got a herky-jerky delivery, but he repeats the same motion each time. His fastball sat at 89-91 (mph), flashing 93, and he was 85-87 with the slider for a strike . . . Good luck (hitting that)."
Alderson walked a batter in the second inning, which was his first free pass of the season, against 49 strikeouts.
• The start of the season for a handful of intriguing high school prospects in the Midwest has been eagerly awaited. The one that made the most noise with his debut was Jarrod Parker, a senior righthander from Norwell (Ind.) High. He touched 95 mph last summer, flashed a plus breaking ball and thus established himself as a potential high-round pick and secured a scholarship offer from Georgia Tech. But when he touched 97 mph--several times--in a three-inning outing in which he struck out all nine batters he faced in April, his stock climbed considerably.
"He settled in at 95, showed he could take it up a notch and showed feel for his slider, curveball and changeup," said a scout who attended the outing. "It's free and easy, that was the joy of watching this kid. There is there no wrinkle in his arm action."
Parker weighed in at 6-feet, 166 pounds last August at the East Coast Showcase, where he ranked ninth among the event's deep crop of pitchers. His slight frame will cause some teams to balk when evaluating him, but at least one scout defended Parker's most glaring shortcoming. "That's an element you put into every evaluation," the scout said of his size. "With this kid, you have to have the reference on him, the history of health, and it's pretty clean."
• Before the season began, Bellarmine Prep (San Jose) senior righthander Erik Goeddel went down with an arm injury, and following a month of rest and rerhabilitation, he was unable to return to the hill.
"The doctor said, 'Go play some in the outfield, let's test it,' and he did and it hurt again," Bellarmine Prep coach Gary Cunningham said. "So he won't throw the rest of this year. What he has done is still being evaluated."
Goeddel was ranked No. 33 among high school seniors before the injury, and has committed to UCLA.